Zed Peace

Brunei in the future
by Zed Peace

In the beginning of 2008, Brunei annouced a long term strategy which would secure its future some 27 years later, by the year 2035. It is essentially a wawasan, a vision of sorts, and that said, it may or may not come true. It highlights mainly economic and social goals towards Brunei's future, aiming for the usual things every country would desire: high gdp, high living standards, fully educated youth, jobs, technology etc. During the summer while I was in Brunei, I attended a talk held in UBD for students under government scholarships, and they stressed that us students also had an important role to play. The powerpoint presentation showed how the scholarship programmes given out by Ministry of Education was but one part of the entirety of the 2035 plan. To put it bluntly, we are cogs under this grand clockwork of a strategy, and should return to Brunei ready to give our services towards the well-being of our country. And that is only fair, being a sponsored student of the Brunei Ministry of Education myself, I cannot express the gratitude I owe to the administration.

The trouble with opening up a discussion of the future is the many uncertainties that entails it. The big question for me for example, and I might be the exception here, is what are the changes the 2035 vision hope NOT to see? Will there be any changes to the country's leadership and direction, or will it be essentially the same by 2035? This is the political dimension the 2035 vision and its advocates seemed to have turned a blind eye to. For one our current Sultan would be 89 years old and I can safely predict that HRH the Crown Prince would assume the throne by then and his cabinet will consist of the future ministers of today's generation. Will this have a significant impact towards government, or would the status quo remain? Looking back at history, the previous Sultan, Sultan Omar Ali Saiffudin, announced an unexpected abdication in 1968 so his son became the Sultan, who was 21 at the time. Certainly shocking at the time, however Sultan Omar Ali abdicated for political reasons. In Graham Saunders 'A History of Brunei'* he wrote:

'Sir Omar's calculations proved correct. His abdication, the installation of his son, and the ceremonies associated with the corronation in 1968 provided the breating space required.' [p. 162]

Although:

'The installation of a new sultan did not mean any change in policy. If anything, Sir Omar Ali as Seri Begawan Sultan had a freer hand than before. [...] In effect, however, the Sultan weilded virtually autocratic power, which in these early years meant that the Seri Begawan exercised his power.' [p. 163]

The 2035 plan, however conclusive and full-proof (being supported by a stream of facts, data and research), does not try to predict any drastic turn of events which might mess about with status quo. Governments all over the world depend on strategy, and strategy ultimately depends on the quality of the leadership and administration. To recall a very Sun Tzu-ish quote, a general is only as good as his subordinates, or something along those lines. Meaning in order for this 2035 vision to become a reality, both the Brunei government and the Bruneian people MUST be willing to comply and take the necessary actions (and/or sacrifices) to achieve it. If any one of these groups, by the years leading up to 2035, start to have cold-feet and falter, then I am sad to say that there would have been no point in assembling the strategy in the first place.

*This book is certainly a must-read as it gives an alternative assessment on Brunei's political history, hence the title 'A history' and not 'The history'.

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